俄烏戰爭從2月24日正式開打，至今已超過20多天了，但何時能結束仍難預估。戰爭古今中外都有，雖令人恐懼、厭惡，卻找不到徹底防範的良藥。
二戰結束後，世界曾相對太平了很長一段日子，但局部戰爭從未中斷過。其中涉及中國大陸的戰爭，較大的有抗美援朝戰爭、中印邊境戰爭、對蘇珍寶島戰爭、對越自衛戰爭等。而臺灣則除1958年與大陸間發生的八二三炮戰外，沒有過重大戰役。因此臺灣島上的人，可說一直過著相對太平的日子。但由於兩岸對峙的形勢始終未消除，人們內心仍難免有戰爭終將來臨的陰影。
這次在俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間爆發的戰爭，通過平面媒體的報導與電視畫面的呈現，令許多人都感到震驚。人們突然警覺到，原來戰爭這麼可怕， 而且離開我們似乎並不遙遠。這對臺灣領導層及一般平民，都是一場震撼教育。許多人甚至本能地欲臨時抱佛腳，他們考慮要將募兵制改為徵兵制，加強教育召集政策，延長兵役年限等。可說鬧得人心惶惶，好像發生在烏克蘭的戰爭，明天就會在臺灣上演一樣，其實這都是反應過度的表現。
首先，大陸對解決兩岸分裂狀態，有自己的時程安排，不會受俄烏戰爭的影響而有所改變。解決兩岸分裂的或早或晚，固主要操之在彼，但臺灣也有影響，即表現在臺灣當局與一般平民，對兩岸問題的態度上。若我們在情感上，仍視兩岸為一整體，主張兩岸一家親，則大陸就無必要急著實施統一。反之，若臺灣大部分人都不認同兩岸是一家，並朝著脫離大陸的方向滑行，則大陸為了維護領土主權完整，將被迫祭出《反分裂國家法》的相關規定，盡速完成兩岸統一的目標。
我們若害怕戰爭，最有效的辦法，不是備戰，而是避戰。臺灣與大陸實力相差懸殊，即使全島人人皆兵，買進美國最先進的武器，把臺灣變成刺蝟、豪豬、堅果、毒蠍或毒蛙，如同孫悟空擁有七十二變的本事，也無濟於事。因完成兩岸統一是大陸的既定國策，早在1978年十一屆三中全會中，即已提出，是不可能有所動搖或改變的。而其進度則完全視兩岸情勢的發展而定，而不會受外部事件，例如俄烏戰爭等因素的影響。
大家都說，臺灣有可能步上烏克蘭的後塵，因臺灣與烏克蘭一樣，其和平或戰爭，都掌控在美國人手裡。筆者日前在《對烏克蘭悲劇的看法》一文中曾提到，俄烏戰爭是美國霸權主義者一手策劃的結果。他們用自由民主人權等口號對烏進行洗腦，並以加入北約或歐盟為誘餌，使無知貪婪的烏克蘭領導者墮入陷阱。然而當魚兒一旦上鉤後，美國人即一改原來的甜言蜜語、山盟海誓，眼睜睜地看著烏克蘭平民在烈火中掙扎，而不肯伸出援手。甚至連將戰機送入烏克蘭境內都不敢，反要波蘭冒險去執行這項任務。美國人紙老虎的本質在此已暴露無遺，希望美國在兩岸衝突時會派兵馳援，純屬癡人說夢。
美國霸權主義者是替美國軍工複合體的利益服務的。美國自1776年建國以來，在249年中已發動了200多場戰爭，沒戰爭的時間不到20年。二戰後他們發動了13場戰爭，都是打著執行聯合國決議，實施人道主義援助，維護世界和平，保護美國公民生命財產的安全等冠冕堂皇的藉口，其實擴張領土，掠奪資源才是他們真正的目的。他們是不會為了台灣犧牲美國大兵生命的。
台獨政權若不希望翻版烏克蘭的慘劇，就必須從其所犯錯誤中吸取教訓， 莫重蹈覆轍。筆者願再次重複提醒：「欲避免兩岸發生流血衝突，與其備戰，莫如避戰。」應當怎麼做法，相信聰明的台獨執政當局，應當已從烏克蘭身上看得很清楚了。願天佑臺灣！
奮 起 
I’ve always wondered why the waisheng/mainlander Chinese supremacists hate “mei di" so much. It’s very puzzling to me. Yes, American foreign policy oftentimes is just as cynical/racist as any other western/authoritarian country’s, sometimes extremely so [e.g., Vietnam and South/central America], but in the case of China, going back to the end of the Qing dynasty, I’d have to say that American foreign policy as it’s implemented on the ground, generally shows pretty benign intentions. It’s an inconvenient truth, to the Chinese supremacists, that it was America that dropped the bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. even they have to admit that that was what decisively ended the war in the pacific theater. America never attempted to invade China; in fact, after the KMT lost and the CCP established itself in China, there was no serious discussion in the american foreign policy community of disturbing, much less challenging, the CCP regime in China [keeping in mind that America, or the CIA in particular, was pretty fond of regime change during the cold war.] More recently, it was America opening up its own domestic market to China that enabled China’s extraordinary “rise", and America took the initiative in doing that, in fact, not the other way around; in other words, China did not come to America as a supplicant, begging for access to its domestic economy [whereas Japan did]. America never regarded China with a full measure of respect, but I don’t think there was intense animosity, either. Closer to home, in Taiwan, during the entire cold war, it was America that was mainly responsible for propping up the waishengren KMT regime [our oppressors, btw]. This intense China hate now in fashion, in america, is of pretty recent vintage; I’d say it only started with Trump.
So, Chinese/waishengren unificationists: why the hate towards America?
Also, somebody has got to push back on this very false narrative in vogue now in western conservative circles that America somehow “seduced" Ukraine and the other eastern bloc countries into having NATO membership expectations, or at least, aspirations. And America apparently did this in bad faith, not ever really seriously planning on using force to protect NATO countries, but solely with the intent to encircle Russia only to humiliate them by reminding them that they “lost" the cold war. Apparently the author is parroting this view too, in this article.
Here’s what I have to say to that: nobody, not America, not Germany, not the UK, held a gun to the proverbial heads of these eastern bloc counties, including Ukraine, and said – you need to join NATO or we’ll destroy you. Each and every one of these countries joined, or wanted to join, NATO of their own volition. And the reason for that is NATO membership gives they some assurance that they won’t be re-integrated back into a neo-USSR ruled by Moscow. The eastern bloc countries are keenly aware that Russia has its own “unification" project, much like Chinese unification of Taiwan, and they want no part of that.
The point is that America didn’t do that much to entice or seduce, as it were, these countries into joining NATO – they were already trying to run away from a montrosity of a country whose aim is to devour them. You [the author] are giving way too much credit, or blame, to America for the expansion of NATO.
There is a huge difference between being seduced and being coerced. With the latter, the victim is blameless; With the former, not so much.
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